Will future oil prices return to record levels?

It’s inevitable that prices will return to record prices at some time, the question should be when. If producers of other goods that OPEC wants realize that they can also control the price of their products to force lower oil prices.
However high oil prices are not all bad. It forces us to look to alternative energy sources that are not as bad for the atmosphere.

Question of the Week - Has the cost of any essential commodity ever went down and then NOT eventually exceeded its previous cost?

They absolutely will return to record prices and before the suggested dates. The oil companies have decided on gross margins they want (need) and they will drive the pricing by producing less.

When greed surpasses desire to suppress alternative energy solutions (or new management forgets they do not want to spur alternative development), prices will go back up.

D A

You are kidding, right? Of COURSE, oil prices will “return to record level”. Nearly every first world economy on the planet is dependent on oil, and demand is still on the increase. The global economy runs on the basic Supply vs Demand model. Demand is up … supply is controlled by the guys who have the oil … therefore, prices go up! “It ain’t rocket science”.

With the current level of thinking in our country (both government and big business), the problem will never be solved.
Here is the synopsis - First understand, the oil nations WANT us to be dependent on oil.
Whenever oil prices go up too fast, we (government and big business) start “rattling our sword” about developing new and alternative energy sources. We ARE CAPABLE of doing the development, but we let PROFITABILITY determine IF we do it or not.
When it becomes profitable to develop new energy sources, the oil nations increase the global supply of oil, thus reducing the price and making development of new energy source UNPROFITABLE. Then we go back to sleep.

In the mean time, the oil companies have pulled down some big profits, appeasing the far right wing conservatives, and we make miniscule progress on “green” technologies, appeasing the far left wing liberals. This leaves the vast majority of the middle class country (a conglomerate of rational moderates) with high fuel costs (the prices never return to as low as before the “crisis”) and more tax burden from the started but unfinished technology development efforts (the funding … to the big businesses … never seems to go away completely).

The oil nations are manipulating OUR economy, because WE are dependent on THEIR resource. Until we stop being concerned about the IMMEDIATE PROFITABILITY of “freedom from their oil tyranny” and start focusing on the LONG TERM VIABILITY of our “energy freedom”, the control of our economy will remain out of our reach.

Duh…. Does a wild bear play in the woods?

We have energy reserves to take us into the next century. We simply need to go after them — NOW! We also need to develop alternative (renewable) energy sources which can replace the current oil, gas and coal sources. Ethanol is not the answer as it takes an inordinate quantity of water and an excess of other energy to make it. (Ethanol is for drinking.) We are making great strides in the efficiency of solar cells, but still have a long way to go. We need some out-of-the-box thinking here.

And by 2060 as transportation grinds to a halt due to oil exhaustion……..

Remember the saying, “Records are made to be broken?” Oil demand is ramping up rapidly with China and India developing and no technology changes America can make will be fast enough to keep up. Besides, the chemical industry, which relies on oil makes up some some 30-40% of demand and will not significantly drop consumption no matter what alternative fuels are developed. There are a number credible reports that we hit peak oil last year and we can expect to hit it again…some day soon, permanently. It will be a world-changer that will set back civilization in a way that we can hardly foresee. And government control of the situation will only make it worse.

The question seems to imply that prices are linked to supply and demand.

The last decade has proven that old theory to be seriously flawed. Prices reflect ‘market perceptions’, the actions of commodity price manipulators, and most importantly ‘what the market will bear’. In addition, the inflation caused by the recent rounds of ‘bailouts’ financed with imaginary money will mean that the real buying power off currencies will decrease.

As soon as world or even a few national economies strengthen you can safely bet on new record high prices. I predict we will see new record highs this year or at best by the end of 2010.

Lacking a coherent energy policy and lacking the political will to restrain spending, there is no doubt that the question is not “If?” but “When?”

Putting investment into green energy is a good start, but it is less than 1.5% of our entire energy spectrum now. The present administration is spending tens of billions of dollars to “double our green energy” commitment. Wow. That gets us up to 3%. The rest is predominantly fossil fuel. Nuclear power is ignored, while the French are over 35% nuclear. What are we scared of that the French are not? The present recession has suppressed demand for oil, and yet the price is going up. Why? Because the speculators are betting on hyperinflation.

For example, California has millions of barrels lying untapped offshore, yet faces an energy crisis and bankruptcy because of a political mindset that says that ANY drilling is an environmental disaster. That’s why I’m an engineer and not a politician. Logic and the laws of physics and economics prevail over hype, spin, emotion, and political diktat. These latter day politicians are the intellectual descendants of King Canute, who commanded the sea to “hold back the tide”.

When the Fed is printing Trillions of dollars to pump into the money supply, which is not matched by revenue, inflation alone forces the price of commodities to rise. It’s really very simple, until the politics complicate the matter. The history of the world is full of failed examples of politicians trying to spend their way out of recessions or borrow their way out of debt. The German Weimar Republic and recently, Zimbabwe are notable examples of this approach. Yet, somehow, our enlightened bureaucrats are trying to convince us that “This time, it’s different”. That’s what the Zimbabweans said, too.

Particularly if they persist in raising taxes and further diluting the money supply. Whether by burdening the economy further with their carbon emissions ration and tax scheme known euphemistically as “cap and trade” or by adding a level of government health care bureaucracy to the already inefficient system, at some point, the laws of supply and demand will reassert themselves. It will not end well.

Definitely, oil prices are going to return to their previous high and beyond. Apart from the politics, fear and devaluation of the dollar on the international market will cause oil to clime to new highs. Inflation will likely be the big problem.

Alternate fuels are like springs. You put energy in to get energy out. That balance between energy invested and energy output defines the economic value of fuels. Petroleum maintains an attractive energetic return on investment. Petroleum, being the energetic ROI leader will remain in demand. In addition to distribution and marketing issues, as supplies decline, demand will drive prices accordingly. Prices will trend upwards.

Oil prices are ultimately a simple matter of supply and demand. There is no technical reason why the supply should be limited. The United States controls more oil in the ground than most of the rest of the world combined, and technology is rapidly developing to produce non-fossil hydrocarbon fuels from algae and other sources at a lower cost per barrel than is currently being paid for petroleum. Most of the proposed “green energy” solutions–ethanol, wind, solar, hydrogen, etc.–are hoaxes, as is the man-made global warming hysteria driving them.

The solutions now being proposed are political, not technical, all contrived to increase the power of government and enrich those with political clout.

We could supply our fuel needs forever at less than $40 per barrel if we would just drill for our own oil, enough to last us for at least another hundred years, while the technology develops to produce equivalent hydrocarbons from renewable sources at equivalent cost.

* June 2, 2009 at 10:39 am
* Frank
* We have energy reserves to take us into the next century. We simply need to go after them — NOW!

* June 2, 2009 at 10:59 am
* Stu S
* For example, California has millions of barrels lying untapped offshore,

No, we do not have liquid fuel (oil) reserves to take us into 2100. U.S. oil production peaked around 1971-2 and has been declining ever since. Estimated reserves do not change that. The U.S. imports a majority of the oil it uses, most from Canada and Mexico, but it’s a world market.

The amount of offshore oil is part of those estimated reserves. It is not enough to make a significant impact. Oil companies already have leases to a substantial portion of the offshore reserves, but they haven’t drilled there. It’s not worth the trouble.

When world oil production peaks, oil will not run out but the availability will decrease and the price will skyrocket. It’s already too late to avoid the mother of all oil shocks, but we can get busy now working on how to live without reliance on oil.

No doubt we will see record prices for oil again. While we dream of the future of alternative energy, which will take forever to to arrive, we could be going after a 300 year reserve of shale oil in some of our western states. By not allowing more off shore drilling while we are already doing it
doesn’t make much sense either. But of course this is bad for the environment. Have you ever seen the really ugly wind farms in the California desert? Now, that’s an environmental disaster. But, that’s one of the sources of alternative energy. Yeah, right. Solar sounds good, but how many people can afford an instsllation for their home? Even with a government subsidy, we’re a long way off before prices are generably affordable. Half of our population is afraid of nuclear–so much for that alternative. Guess what! We will see record oil prices sooner rather than later.

The global oil reserve is finite, and our demand grows non-linearily (but discontinuously, vis-a-vis recession). The price will reach new highs unless our demand drops sharply. If we can decrease our dependence, the price balance may be maintained until we have replaced oil as the building block of our energy systems and material/chemical supply.

As a reasonable industrial nation, let us examine what desireable and necessary object(s) we continue to produce in the US of A that is/are not dependent on international supply of raw material, and similarly escallate the price … in other words, establish a balance. Let’s see … what might that be .. uh, perhaps very large, gas-guzzling SUV’s. There … you have it! Hold on, though, I suspect we’ve already outsourced such a high percentage of components, someone else can control that supply thus counteracting our efforts. OOPS. Too late! Tail wags the Dog.
Well, at least we can sit back and watch our Administration try to spend and tax and spend and tax their way out of the recession … but that isn’t going to work either! Now .. where did I leave that bicycle pump?

Inflation will drive oil prices up even faster than that was proposed.

The oil price is still twice what it should be, and some positive things are happening to keep it closer to the present level, e.g., China is pushing coal conversion (and the US should follow a bit quicker), Mid East countries and Big Oil are and have been investing in non-oil revenue ventures, GM will finally have to promote high-efficiency vehicles, and the recent economic kick has taught a few folks around the globe how to be more energy frugal.

http://www.wolfatthedoor.org.uk/

…of course, the only question is how much will it fluctuate in the interim. We can and should diversify our energy sources since it is and will continue to drive our economy and everyone else’s. Next question: when will water rich $140 a barrel?

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Of course they will! Whether that is next year or next decade depends on the pace of economic recovery and reaching price levels that support alternatives.

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